Shifting consumer preferences, a growing interest in sustainability, and the influence of younger generations are redefining how wine is consumed and appreciated. FSR spoke with industry leaders to unpack the major trends of 2024 and explore what the future holds for the wine world in 2025.
Wine in Decline
Jon Baer, beverage director at North Italia, notes that wine’s popularity has steadily declined since the COVID-19 pandemic, with sharper downturns over the past two years. He attributes this shift to the surging appeal of low- or no-alcohol beverages and the booming cocktail scene, especially in premium tequila and high-end whiskey categories.
“We definitely see consumers transitioning to cocktails from wine, and I think there’s going to continue to be this trade-off for the nonalcoholic beverage side,” he says. “The consumers that are sticking with wine are going to continue to look for something that overdelivers at a quality price point.”
Baer groups consumers that are still ordering wine at the table into two key groups. The first seeks “safe and affordable” options. “They want something that’s at a relatively good price point that they can trust,” he says. “That’s either recognizing the consumer brand name or just the varietal type.”
The second group is more discerning, willing to pay a premium for a glass of wine they perceive as high-quality. “If you’re going to charge $18 for a glass of wine, they want to know that it’s a quality glass, and most of those consumers that are spending that money recognize what they’re paying for,” he says.
Baer also notes an oversupply of wine in 2024 that will likely persist into 2025. This surplus could benefit inflation-weary consumers by enabling restaurants to offer better price points.
“Coming out of COVID, there was so much demand for everything—especially domestically—that prices have just continued to go up the last couple years,” he says. “I think those will relax a little bit and help us out, at least on the restaurant side of our cost of goods, and be able to pass it on to our consumers.”
Jacob Johnson is the corporate beverage director for Tavistock Restaurant Collection, which operates 17 concepts, including the upscale steakhouse Abe & Louie’s with locations in Boston and Boca Raton, Florida. Last year, he noticed that wines on the menu priced at or under $20 a bottle and those priced over $150 “all grew tremendously” while the middle range of wines seemed to have “fallen off entirely.”
“Consumer trends have indicated that wine, once again, has become a slightly less expensive alternative to cocktails—think European bistro,” he says. “After a year of overly powerful and in-your-face cocktail flavors, our guests have begun to seek out easier on the palate alternatives. Once prices incentivize consumers to opt into wine and out of liquor, the choice is easy.”
Recent investment in California has escalated prices at an unprecedented rate, he adds. With that shift, he’s forecasting growth in international wines in 2025.
“The traditional consumer has already been priced out of many well-known California wineries in 2024, while some wineries continue to take aggressive price hikes,” Johnson says. “The immense market pressure has opened the doors and public perception to many high performing international wine regions such as Chile and Spain—and believe it or not, France is doing excellent, offering quality product for great value once again.”
Engaging the Next Generation
Larissa Dubose, senior director of Paradies Lagardère’s Vino Volo wine bar brand, is closely tracking the rise of the nonalcoholic movement. “If you look at the sheer amount of offerings available now versus five years ago, it’s phenomenal to see how this part of the industry is booming,” she says.
She points to SommCon, a major gathering for beverage professionals, where the nonalcoholic trend was a central topic of discussion. A standout session led by Erica Duecy, founder of Business of Drinks, and Erik Segelbaum, founder of Somlyay Hospitality Consulting, highlighted how to connect with Millennial and Gen Z consumers—generations moderating their alcohol intake. One statistic stuck with Dubose: Nonalcoholic beverage sales surpassed $1.8 billion in 2023 and are projected to grow by 25 percent annually for the next four years.
“It’s been shown that for younger generations, alcohol doesn’t carry the same importance as it did for others,” she says. “So, we want to be mindful of that. How do we reach them where they are?”
For Dubose, meeting consumers where they are also means understanding their flavor preferences. “Most wine drinkers start their journey on the sweeter side,” she says. “Sweeter profiles are approachable and easy to drink.”
While sweeter wines have always been popular with beginners, Dubose notes a rising interest in unique flavor combinations, such as semi-sparkling moscatos infused with pineapple and spicy chili. She encourages beverage leaders to consider how such offerings can attract both new and experienced wine drinkers.
Another way to demystify wine for new consumers is through low-high pairings. Dubose champions the idea of pairing everyday foods with wine—think ice cream or chicken wings—removing pretension and making wine approachable.
“That definitely goes a long way to attracting the younger generation,” she says. “Why does it have to be this ambiguous, elitist beverage? It’s a libation that should be enjoyed however you want it to fit into your world. And it’s us as the wine industry professionals that are commissioned to provide that information, to provide that education for our younger generation.”
On the education front, the topic of transparency has been a growing focus in the wine world and is expected to remain a key point of interest moving forward. As consumers increasingly prioritize health, sustainability, and authenticity, the wine industry is responding with products that align with these values. This shift has contributed to the rising popularity of biodynamic wines, which emphasize harmony and balance in the vineyard by treating it as a living ecosystem. Organic wines, which strictly avoid synthetic pesticides and fertilizers, and natural wines, crafted with minimal intervention and additives, have also gained traction among conscientious consumers.
“I don’t really get into the natural wine debate, but I do believe there’s something to be said about how the trend has really driven the conversation around how wine is made,” Dubose says. “That non-interventional and less-is-more approach has really opened up the consumer’s curiosity into wine making, so being able to tell the story behind the wine is important.”
Accessibility and Appeal
Whether creating new wine programs or enhancing existing lists, Johnson says it is important to recognize that the most commonly called for wines are just that—most commonly called for.
“Regardless of perceived prestige, every list should hold space for wines that make people feel comfortable,” he says. “So many sommeliers over the years have sought out to ‘leave their mark,’ and I genuinely believe that overly esoteric, almost unreadable lists have left our guests feeling that they’re not welcome in our club.”
He says a great list should include hidden gems, commonly called for items, biodynamic and/or healthy wines, and nonalcoholic options in 2025 to cater to various demographics. But beverage leaders should also be mindful of not overwhelming guests with the amount of information presented on the menu.
This is where staff training plays a critical role. Equipping team members with a strong foundation of wine knowledge allows them to guide guests confidently, says Ian Concascia, a sommelier at The Wine Room Kitchen & Bar, which operates locations in Winter Park and Delray Beach, Florida. Concascia suggests offering team members a simple framework: provide them with a few conversational points about each wine to share with guests who prefer quick recommendations, but also train them to dive deeper when guests seek more detailed insights.
“Focus on the understanding—not the rote memorization—of what goes well together,” Concascia says. “What actually makes a good cabernet go well with a steak? What makes a high-tannin wine go well with something that has these buttery, umami flavors? The better understanding that you have of what makes things go well together, that is going to help you convey it to the customer and give more genuine advice.”
For Johnson, one of the simplest ways to enhance a wine program in 2025 is by paring down overly complex menus. “Menu fatigue is rampant amongst American consumers, depicting hard-to-pronounce spices and herbs, esoteric vineyard sites, and overly descriptive food names,” he notes. “We have seen greater success in ensuring our guests have more time to converse with their friends and family and spend less time reading through short stories—I mean menus—prior to starting their dining experience.”
Ultimately, Johnson believes wine programs in restaurants should focus on accessibility to remain relevant and compelling for today’s consumers, especially younger ones.
“The wine world is in an area of transition in regard to its demographic supporters,” he says. “Premium wine buyers are typically Baby Boomers and will remain strong over the next 5-10 years. However, it is important to remember the subsequent generations that will shape the landscape of premium purchasers in the future. I think that utilizing app-formatted menus that include photos is an easier way to make the process more interactive, fun, and accessible.”
