According to GuestMetrics, after starting out the year on a relatively weak note in 1Q, seasonal beer volumes are showing signs of a healthy recovery in the on-premise channel for 2Q thru June 16th.
“In analyzing the approximately 400 seasonal beer brands we track in our system, seasonal volumes were off to a fairly weak start in 1Q13 with year-over-year volume declining -2.4 percent, but thus far in 2Q, have experienced a solid bounce back, with volumes up +5.8 percent through June 16th. Given the fact the first quarter of the year tends to be the smallest one for seasonal beers, it is encouraging to see the recovery thus far during the second quarter,” says Bill Pecoriello, CEO of GuestMetrics LLC. Based on data from GuestMetrics, year-over-year on-premise retail dollar sales for seasonal beers were up +0.7 percent in 1Q13 but accelerated to +9.1 percent in 2Q13 to-date, with price/mix showing a slight acceleration from +3.0 percent in 1Q13 to +3.3 percent in 2Q13 to-date.
“To get an understanding for the relative importance of the various seasons of the year, we also analyzed seasonal beer data with respect to the four quarters. Looking at 2012, 19 percent of seasonal beer’s volume came during 1Q, 26 percent during 2Q, 26 percent during 3Q, and 28 percent during 4Q,” says Peter Reidhead, vice president of Strategy and Insights at GuestMetrics. “In the same vein, we also analyzed seasonal beer’s share of overall beer volume, and saw a similar pattern. Seasonal beer’s share of overall beer volume was 1.3 percent during the first quarter of 2012, 1.7 percent during the second quarter, 1.8 percent during the third quarter, and 2.0 percent during the fourth quarter. Looking at 2013, seasonal beer’s share of overall beer volume was 1.2 percent during 1Q, so just slightly below its share for the same period during the prior year, and is back to 1.8 percent during 2Q to-date, above its share during the second quarter of last year, an encouraging sign.”
“While seasonal beers are a fairly small portion of the overall beer category with generally less than a 2-share of total volumes in on-premise, given the competitive nature of the alcohol industry and the generally sluggish growth being experienced in overall on-premise, the trends thus far in 2Q for seasonal beers are encouraging, and could be a source for incremental growth for both suppliers and operators as we head further into the summer season,” says Brian Barrett, president of GuestMetrics.
