Fall Seasonal Beers Underperform According to Study

GuestMetrics, which collects check-level data from the point-of-sales systems of 10,000 restaurants & bars, found that seasonal craft beers failed to deliver this fall.

Some other findings were:

Share changes between alcohol beverage categories: The Spirits unit share of alcohol gains increased from 0.9 percent year-to-date (TYD) to 1.7 percent over the last four weeks. Beer unit share was down 1.2 percent during the latest four weeks (weakening from down 0.9 percentYTD). Wine share was down 0.4 percent (vs. flat YTD).  

Total Alcohol: Total alcohol units sold were down 4.3 percent during the four weeks (vs. down 2.9 percent YTD). Total alcohol sales were down 2.5 percent as price/mix contributed 1.9 percent.

Beer: Beer unit growth was down 6.9 percent during the latest four weeks vs. down 4.8 percent YTD. Beer unit dollar sales were down 4.9 percent with price/mix up 2 percent.

Beer Segments: Imports’ year-over-year (y/y) share change improved to 0.6 percent during the four weeks (up from 0.1 percent decrease YTD); Cider remained flat y/y during the four weeks (down from 0.2 percent YTD); Craft experienced a y/y share decline for the first time this year: down 0.5 percent as compared to 0.8 percent YTD and 0.2 percent during the last 12 weeks; Premium Light’s y/y share was flat, improving from 1.1 percent decrease YTD and 0.7 percent drop over the last 12 weeks. Craft share weakness was partly driven by weakness in seasonals along with weakness in some of the larger brands.

Fall Seasonal Beers: Autumn seasonal beers underperformed, with Marzen/Oktoberfest Lagers’ y/y share change down 0.3 percent for the latest four weeks (up 0.1 percent during the same four weeks last year) and Fruit/Pumpkin/Flavored Beers’ y/y share change down 0.3 percent for the latest four weeks (down 0.1 percent during the same four weeks last year).

Overall Spirits: Spirits unit growth was down 0.2 percent during the latest four weeks, above the 0.7 percent drop YTD trend. Spirits dollar sales were up 1.4 percent driven by price/mix up 1.5 percent.

Spirits Categories: Segments gaining y/y share of spirits during the four weeks were Tequila, Irish, Vodka (increasing its rebound into positive territory), Gin, and Brandy. Bourbons/Blends (including flavored), Rum, Cordials, and Scotch were share donors.

Craft Spirits: Domestic Craft Spirits y/y share gain increased to 2.9 percent over the latest four weeks versus 2.7 percent YTD.

Overall Wine: Wine volumes were  down 7 percent during latest 4 weeks vs. down 3.2 percent YTD. Wine dollar sales were down 5.7 percent on price/mix up 1.3 percent.

Wine Varietals: YTD the largest y/y volume share gainers have been Cabernet Sauvignon, Prosecco, Sauvignon Blanc, Red Blend and Moscato, while the largest share donors were Merlot, Chardonnay, Riesling, Shiraz/Syrah, and Pinot Gris.

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